This article was initially published in The Hill.

The price of oil has been yo-yo-ing dramatically since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in early 2026 and Iran’s subsequent military control of the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than causing disparate groups to come together to recognize the importance of all forms of energy, this has resulted in some pushing harder for oil and gas and others pressing harder for solar, wind and batteries.  

This is a false dichotomy. Both are needed. 

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A similar situation exists with China — conceptually the Strait of Beijing — which dominates the global refining of critical minerals and related supply chains needed to produce the world’s solar panels. It also manufactures a large share of lithium-ion batteries. The reality is that aggregate U.S. shale production is plateauing — and what follows this “transition” from oil and gas production growth matters.  

The shale revolution was one of the greatest technological achievements in American energy history. Through innovation in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. reversed a decades long production decline and now leads the world in oil and gas production. Affordable shale oil and gas helped pull the U.S. out of the 2009 global recession, improved its geopolitical position, and even lowered carbon emissions as natural gas displaced coal in electricity generation.

But geology has the final word. Every shale basin matures and production eventually slows. To extend the life of shale will require bipartisan policy and regulatory reforms, not uninformed, political sound bites. Investment in advanced drilling technologies, digital optimization and enhanced recovery techniques can help.

Permitting reform is also needed, for all sources of energy. Lengthy permitting delays increase costs, discourage investment and slow construction of critical infrastructure. Improved permitting means clearer rules, greater regulatory certainty and an environment that is better cared for. 

But even with extended shale production, what comes next?  

Some promote a full-scale “transition” from fossil fuels to solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles. Solar and wind are valuable supplemental technologies in the right settings. But it’s tough to negotiate with physics. Solar, wind and batteries require enormous amounts of land to deploy and back up generation and storage, adding complexity and cost.

Further, they need vast quantities of critical metals and rare earth elements, which must be transported, processed and made into solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and EVs, all dominantly sourced from China. If the U.S. tries to replace shale oil and gas with technologies that are dependent on Chinese-controlled mineral processing and manufacturing, the outcome unavoidably means far greater dependencies on China.

Good for China. Bad for America. And bad for Europe, which continues to increase its dependence on batteries to back up intermittent solar and wind and power EVs.  

The backbone of the global energy system must remain affordable, reliable and secure. In terms of electricity, which represents about 20 percent of global end-use energy, natural gas is uniquely positioned to provide flexible, lower-emission electricity while supporting industrial growth and grid reliability.  

Advanced nuclear energy offers carbon-free, around-the-clock electricity with extraordinary energy density, a remarkably small land footprint, and is highly affordable once the plant is built. Next-generation enhanced geothermal systems hold potential for low emissions, baseload electricity. These technologies are not competitors to solar and wind. They are teammates.  

>>> READ: House Acts to Unlock America’s Geothermal Potential

America must pursue an energy strategy that embraces innovation rather than ideology. It should extend oil and natural gas responsibly while investing aggressively in advanced nuclear, geothermal and grid modernization. At the same time, it must rebuild domestic mining, mineral processing and advanced manufacturing so that it is not dependent on geopolitical competitors.

Energy security has never been about choosing one fuel over another. It is about ensuring that America can compete across the entire energy system. If China controls the materials, processing and manufacturing behind tomorrow’s technologies, the U.S. risks surrendering the security advantage that innovation worked so hard to create.

A China-dominated energy future is not inevitable. But avoiding it will require bipartisan recognition of physics and economic realities, and the same combination of innovation, science, engineering, investment and pragmatic policy that made the shale revolution possible in the first place.  

Shale bought America valuable time. Let’s use it wisely.

Scott Tinker is professor emeritus at the University of Texas-Austin. He hosts “Energy Switch” on PBS nationwide, and “Earth Date” on public radio weekly in all 50 states.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of C3.