Energy Secretary Chris Wright does not expect U.S. crude oil production to decline in 2026, although the Energy Information Administration forecast such a development.
“That is a projection — we don’t know what’s going to happen next year,” Wright told Bloomberg in an interview. “We have seen weak prices for a few months, and if prices are too low for an economic incentive, you’ll see some drilling reduce on the margin. I think it’s unlikely you’ll see enough reduction to actually see a decline in production next year.”
The Energy Information Administration said earlier this week it expected oil production in the U.S. to decline from 13.5 million barrels daily in the second quarter of this year to 13.3 million barrels daily in 2026 as shale oil peaks. The authority cited weak oil prices as one reason for the expected decline, while some industry executives have pointed to the exhaustion of low-cost shale deposits as a driver of the potential future decline.
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