America faces an uncomfortable truth: our energy and environmental ambitions have been dangerously misaligned with our economic and geopolitical reality. During the Biden administration we indulged in wishful thinking and fiscal irresponsibility. If we don’t course-correct right now, by expanding and modernizing our fossil fuel capabilities, we will jeopardize everything from economic stability to national security for decades and generations to come.

Let’s be clear: the world is not transitioning away from fossil fuels. Global energy use is expanding at an unprecedented rate, and fossil fuels remain the backbone of that expansion. As of 2023, 82% of the global energy mix still comes from fossil fuels. This figure has barely budged in over a decade. At the current rate of change, fossil fuels would remain dominant until the year 2225. Yet U.S. energy policy often operates as if we’re just a few solar panels away from a carbon-free utopia.

The global energy map also does not evolve in isolation. We are entering the age of artificial intelligence—an era that will place previously unimaginable strain on our power grids. Generative AI, for instance, is set to consume as much as 50% of global electricity by 2027. Large-scale data centers powering AI models consume electricity equivalent to tens of thousands of homes. In Virginia alone, demand from data centers is projected to double the state’s total energy consumption in the coming years. Our current grid cannot handle this. The reliability gap is real, and it’s growing fast. If rapidly growing demand outpaces new supplies, American families and businesses will feel the economic pain when paying energy bills. 

Still, America has something extraordinary to offer: the world’s cleanest, safest, and most efficient energy production system. Our carbon emissions per unit of GDP are among the lowest globally. Since 1990, the U.S. has cut per capita CO₂ emissions by one-third and kept total emissions flat despite significant economic and population growth. In contrast, China’s emissions have doubled in the past two decades and now account for nearly a third of global totals. India, Russia, and state-owned enterprises in authoritarian regimes dominate the carbon ledger. These countries ramp up emissions while blaming the U.S.

This is where America’s true carbon advantage lies: our private sector is already more carbon-efficient than the rest of the world. We produce more energy with fewer emissions, thanks to natural gas, tight capital discipline, and a regulatory framework that—at least until recently—rewarded innovation. We need to export our expertise.

Instead, we’ve allowed ideology to override pragmatism. Instead of scaling what works, we’ve burdened the energy sector with politicized metrics, misaligned subsidies, and self-defeating “net-zero” timelines.

And what of net-zero? Despite lofty pledges, nearly 93% of global companies with net-zero targets are not on track to meet them. Even the most committed firms would need to double their emission reduction rates simply to hit their 2050 targets. That’s not failure—it’s denial. 

The regions driving global growth—Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia—are experiencing a surge in population and energy demand. These areas are still grappling with energy poverty. In Africa, 43% of people lack access to electricity. These populations are not debating net-zero; they are trying to keep the lights on. Natural gas can help empower these regions. Yet U.S. energy policy routinely restricts liquefied natural gas infrastructure (including Biden’s misguided “pause”), and punishes domestic producers. 

We must also reckon with mineral scarcity. The clean energy future requires critical materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths—resources that China and other non-democratic regimes overwhelmingly control. Global supply is insufficient to meet the 2035 clean tech goals. Even if we had the minerals, we lack the processing capacity and logistical infrastructure to deploy them at scale. Betting the economy on technologies we can’t fully source or scale is reckless.

So what’s the path forward?

America must double down on its existing strengths: natural gas, nuclear, pipeline infrastructure, and emissions efficiency. We should unleash free, competitive energy markets that empower all energy technologies and resources to compete without dependence on the government. We need regulatory stability, pro-growth tax policy, permitting reform and a wholesale rethinking of energy as a strategic asset, not a political football. We need to stop penalizing the industries that make energy affordable and reliable.

Virginia offers a potential blueprint. With a mix of 60% natural gas and 30% nuclear, the state has created the foundation for powering AI-driven growth. Its data center electricity costs are about a third less than the national average. If scaled nationally, this model could support a new economy without sacrificing emissions progress. But it requires investment—not just in generation but in grid resilience, water access, renewables, and transmission.

We must abandon the fantasy that we can regulate, subsidize, or shame our way to a cleaner future. True decarbonization will occur, but not because of top-down mandates. It will occur through scale, entrepreneurship, and innovation. 

We will develop cleaner hydrocarbons using breakthrough technologies and private-sector discipline. Policymakers should stop picking winners and losers. Let the market drive innovation.

The question is no longer whether we need a bigger energy boat—it’s whether we’re willing to build it in time. Our economic future, global credibility, and geopolitical stability depend on the answer.

Dan Romito is Managing Director at Pickering Energy Partners.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of C3.