As the Iran war continues, oil prices keep rising. Gasoline has climbed to over $4 per gallon for the first time in four years. The ripple effects are spreading across the economy as markets that depend on affordable crude begin to absorb the disruption of roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Everything from airline tickets to groceries is seeing upward pressure as the prices of jet fuel, diesel, and fertilizer all rise.

Politically, the longer this war continues, the worse the fallout will be for President Trump and his administration. The irony of gasoline politics is that, for all the public’s tendency to blame politicians for rising prices, presidents usually have little control over where fuel prices go. In this case, however, the connection is much clearer. Prices were relatively low before the war, and they have continued to rise since the conflict began.

After President Trump’s recent speech promising more aggressive strikes over the next two to three weeks, oil prices jumped immediately, underscoring that markets are pricing not just current disruption but the prospect of a longer war. There is also reason to believe that crude prices still may not fully reflect the scale of the shock. Refined fuels, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, have risen faster than crude, suggesting that physical markets are already pricing in the disruption more fully than financial markets are. In effect, traders may still be holding out hope that the conflict will end quickly. If that hope fades, crude prices could rise further even without any new infrastructure damage or additional supply losses.

In fact, futures markets suggest that traders still expect the conflict to be relatively short-lived. Futures prices, which reflect what buyers and sellers expect oil to cost at a given point in the future, remain much closer to prewar levels over the medium and long term than today’s elevated prices. For example, oil for delivery in October, six months from now, is priced in the mid-$70s per barrel, while contracts for delivery a year from now are below $70. That suggests markets still expect prices to move back toward a level closer to their prewar level.

Ultimately, even if the war ended today, gasoline and other refined fuel prices would likely remain elevated for some time. Gasoline and oil prices are often subject to a pricing phenomenon known as “rockets and feathers.” Refined fuel prices are quick to shoot up in response to shocks in crude oil markets, but fall much more slowly once crude prices begin to decline. As a result, gasoline prices will likely take weeks or even months to reflect any meaningful decline in crude oil prices.

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And the longer the war goes on, the greater the risk of lasting economic effects. As Philip Rossetti of the R Street Institute notes, the war could have lasting effects on prices due to both physical damage to energy infrastructure and heightened risk of future disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Even after a peace deal, markets may continue pricing in those risks if investors believe the Strait could again be used as a chokepoint in future conflicts. In other words, ending the war would not necessarily end the price shock. The damage already done, combined with the risk premium created by the conflict, could keep energy prices above prewar levels long after the fighting stops.

The broader lesson is that this war may not produce just a short-term increase in prices. By creating uncertainty, damaging infrastructure, and leaving behind risks that markets continue to price in, it could keep energy costs elevated long after the war ends.  The administration has already taken important steps to reduce Americans’ energy bills by addressing some of the government constraints that have contributed to higher energy prices, including efforts to repeal costly energy and environmental regulations, supporting opportunities for permitting reform, and seeking to remove barriers to domestic energy development. An immediate opportunity to build on those efforts is to secure a durable peace agreement and return to an energy affordability agenda.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of C3.