A new 35-year study of the Brazilian Amazon presents a stark message for businesses and policymakers: local deforestation, not just global climate change, is responsible for the majority of regional rainfall loss—especially during the critical dry season.
Covering 29 regions across the Brazilian Legal Amazon, the study reveals that around 74% of the 21-millimeter decline in dry season precipitation is directly tied to forest loss. While global climate change is the major driver behind rising temperatures, the drying trend stems largely from local land use decisions.
Using refined statistical modeling, researchers were able to separate the effects of deforestation from broader climate trends. They found a nonlinear relationship between forest loss and rainfall—where the most significant weather shifts happen early in the deforestation process, particularly when 10–40% of forest cover is removed. This makes early intervention efforts more impactful than previously assumed.
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